Indonesia Met US Investors to Reinforce Fiscal Credibility

Indonesia Met US Investors to Reinforce Fiscal Credibility 
Indonesia’s finance authority met major US investors including BlackRock, Lazard AM, and HSBC Global Asset Management to reaffirm macro fundamentals and fiscal strategy, aiming to counter concerns over fiscal risks; investors showed confidence in Indonesia’s policy direction, while highlighting the need for better communication, with govt. targeting GDP growth of 5.5% in 1H26 and maintaining deficit below 3% of GDP. (Bloomberg Technoz)

CPO Supply Deemed Sufficient to Support B50 Implementation 
Gapki stated that domestic CPO supply remains sufficient to support the B50 biodiesel program starting 01 Jul-26, with estimated demand of 16 mn tons for biodiesel and 10 mn tons for domestic food consumption (total 26 mn tons); however, potential risks may arise if export demand increases, which could tighten domestic supply dynamics. (Kontan)

BCAS: AADI IJ – Kestrel bought by Yancoal 
− Yancoal Australia has signed an agreement with Adaro Capital, EMR Capital Advisor, Kestrel Coal, and EMR Capital Management to acquire 80% interest in the Kestrel Coal Mine. 
− Deal Value: USD2.4bn, which include USD1,850mn upfront cash which are payable on completion date, and additional contingent cash up to USD550mn paid annually over 5 years depending on coal price benchmark. This transaction expected to be completed in 3Q2026, depending on regulatory approval.
 − AADI effective ownership on this asset are around 47.99%. Thus, allowing AADI to receive total payment up to USD 1151mn, comprised of USD887.8mn upfront cash upon completion, and additional contingent cash up to USD263.9mn if the price threshold are met to receive this payment. 
− Impact on AADI financial will be limited as Kestrel only have 2% contribution to consolidated net profit. 
− AADI capital gain from this transaction are around 6.6%, as this asset was bought from Rio Tinto in 2018 at USD2.25bn. this deal Valued Kestrel at 66.5X trailing PE (upfront + contingent cash) as Kestrel profit last year around USD36.1mn, without contingent cash the PE would be around 51.2X PE.
− We think if the upfront cash could be distributed as special dividends, this will be positive for AADI as this transaction could yield 18.9%. 
− We expect AADI to book USD775mn net profit this year, if we add USD887.8mn one of disposal gain from this transaction into our net profit, it will total around USD1,447mn. As AADI share price currently trade at IDR10,300/sh, AADI currently trade at 3.0X PE.

Merdeka Gold Resources (EMAS) Secured USD 150 mn Credit Facility to Support Funding Needs 
EMAS secured a USD 150 mn credit facility (≈IDR 2.56 tn) effective 10 Apr-26 from a syndicate of banks including BBCA, BNGA, BDMN, BMAS, and Kasikornbank, with a 1-year tenor (extendable) and interest at 2% margin plus benchmark rate; the facility, classified as a material transaction (39.38% of equity) will be used for general corporate purposes such as capex and investments, while providing efficient funding and liquidity flexibility, although it comes with restrictions on certain corporate actions during the loan period. (Kontan)