Terakhir diperbarui: 14-06-2026, 09:10
World Bank Sees Indonesia's Fiscal Deficit Remaining Elevated Through 2028 The World Bank projects Indonesia’s fiscal deficit to remain elevated at 2.8% of GDP in 2026–2027 before easing slightly to 2.7% in 2028, reflecting continued pressure from subsidy spending and funding requirements for govt. priority programs. Despite fiscal constraints, the World Bank expects state revenue to improve over the medium term, supported by tax administration reforms, lower tax refund accumulation, and favorable commodity prices, including coal, LNG, nickel, gold, and palm oil, which could contribute an estimated 0.4% of GDP to revenue. However, rising debt servicing costs remain a concern, with the interest payment to-revenue ratio projected to increase from 18.7% in 2025 to 19.2% in 2028, indicating a growing share of govt. revenue will be allocated toward interest expenses. (Bloomberg Technoz) Govt. and DPR Approve 2027 Macroeconomic Framework and Fiscal Policy Guidelines The govt. and DPR officially approved the 2027 KEM-PPKF, which will serve as the basis for the FY27 state budget discussion. Key macro assumptions include GDP growth of 5.8–6.5%, inflation of 1.5–3.5%, USD/IDR at 16,800–17,500, and a 10-year govt. bond yield of 6.5–7.3%. The govt. also targets a narrower fiscal deficit of 1.8–2.4% of GDP versus 2.92% in FY26, while aiming for state revenue of 11.82–12.40% of GDP and state spending of 13.62–14.80% of GDP to support national priority programs. (Bloomberg Technoz) Govt. to Reduce Free Nutritious Meals (MBG) Budget Following Program Review The govt. confirmed that the Free Nutritious Meals (MBG) program budget, currently set at IDR 268 tn for 2026, will likely be reduced following a comprehensive review and recipient refocusing exercise. Menkeu Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa said Kemenkeu will follow President Prabowo Subianto’s decision, while the govt. targets completing the program restructuring within one month. The review will prioritize beneficiaries in 3T regions (remote, frontier, and underdeveloped areas), reassess school eligibility, and expand coverage for pregnant women, breastfeeding mothers, and toddlers, with the final budget requirement to be recalculated after the process is completed. (Kompas)
