Prabowo Subianto Attends Trump-Initiated Board of Peace Summit, Signs US Reciprocal Tariff Deal

MACROECONOMY 
US Housing Starts Rose 6.2% MoM in Dec-25 
US housing starts increased 6.2% MoM to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.404 mn units in Dec-25, up from 1.322 mn in Nov 25 and well above forecasts of 1.33 mn, marking the second straight monthly gain and highest level since Jul-25. Single-family starts rose 4.1% to 981,000, strongest since Feb-25, while multi-family starts, five units or more, surged 10.1% to 402,000, with sharp gains in the West, +37.4% to 334,000, alongside increases in the Northeast, +5.6% to 152,000, and Midwest, +2.3% to 177,000, partially offset by a 2.8% decline in the South to 741,000. For FY25, total starts reached 1,358,700 units, down 0.6% YoY, extending the fourth consecutive annual contraction. (Trading Economics)

Prabowo Subianto Attends Trump-Initiated Board of Peace Summit, Signs US Reciprocal Tariff Deal 
President Prabowo Subianto is scheduled to attend the “Board of Peace” summit on Gaza in Washington, D.C. on 19 Feb-26, before proceeding to sign the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) tariff deal with the United States. The ART agenda was described as an additional outcome of bilateral coordination between the two countries and was conveyed at the House of Representatives on 18 Feb-26. The visit has drawn domestic debate, including calls for Indonesia to withdraw if the initiative undermines the United Nations’ role and criticism regarding a potential US$1 bn contribution. (Kontan) 

COMPANY 
Bank Mandiri (BMRI) Signalled around IDR 472 DPS on Stable 78% Payout 
BMRI is set to propose a dividend payout ratio of around 78% for FY2025, broadly in line with the prior year, translating into estimated dividends of approximately IDR 43.9 tn or about IDR472/sh, backed by FY2025 net profit of IDR56.3 tn (+0.93% YoY). The steady payout highlights continued capital strength and balance sheet resilience, while management guides for a more measured FY2026 outlook with NIM seen at 4.6%–4.8% and loan growth of 7%–9%, reflecting disciplined expansion amid competitive lending conditions and margin normalization. (Kontan)